Engineers routinely design and innovate new, complex systems under conditions of very high uncertainty and risk. From the Mars Rovers and the International Space Station, to the Channel Tunnel, Burj Khalifa, and Millau Viaduct. And they do so with high reliability. Even missions to Mars—a planet lying a staggering 140 million miles from Earth—have a 40% success rate.
Engineering’s reliability stands in stark contrast to the success rate of “moonshot ventures”—that is, businesses trying to profitably solve big problems and commercialize technological breakthroughs. The probability of any startup achieving enduring profitability—the ultimate measure of success for a business—hovers around 0.3%. Moonshot ventures are likely even lower.